A new research paper has been published titled “E-cigarette Flavor Restrictions’ Effects on Tobacco Product Sales“.

ecig v tobacco flavour ban

You can view the full paper here.

Table of Contents

Introduction & Methods

In the US over 375 localities and 7 States have permanent restrictions on flavoured Vapes (ENDS = Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems).

The study was proposed to investigate whether tobacco sales increased in areas where flavoured vapes were banned / restricted.

Data was collated by using the IRI (Information Resources Incorporated) retail sales figures on vapes and cigarettes. These figures cover 44 states from January 2018 up to March 2023.

ban flavours increase smoking

The base unit for vapes was a 0.7ml pod and packs for cigarettes. Also the data on which vape flavours were purchased is included.

The age of purchasers was taken into account to specify which products were more appealing to different age groups.

Plus the impact of restrictions were tracked – at the start of the data collection period 2.1% of the residents were covered by a flavour restriction. By the end of the collection period 15% were covered.

Results

The results show that from January 2018 to March 2023 the average person purchased 2.635 packs of cigarettes per 4-week period.

Over the same time the average sales for 0.7ml units of e-liquid were 0.48 per person in 4 weeks.

ecig sales following flavour ban
Vape sales following a flavour ban

Also brands which were generally more appealing to youth smokers increased sales after flavour bans.

In areas where flavours had a full ban there was a 0.354% reduction in vape sales alongside a 0.2 increase in cigarette pack sales per person.

cigarette sales following flavour ban
Cigarette sales following a flavour ban

There are a lot more in-depth statistics in the full paper, I am just summarising some of the main points.

Conclusions

I copy and paste from the Abstract of the paper…

“Matching new flavor policy data to retail sales data, we find a trade off of 15 additional cigarettes for every 1 less 0.7 mL ENDS pod sold due to ENDS flavor restrictions. Further, cigarette sales increase even among brands disproportionately used by underage youth. Thus, any public health benefits of reducing ENDS use via flavor restrictions may be offset by public health costs from increased cigarette sales.”

As said above – every 0.7ml vape pod not sold due to the restrictions, a further 15 additional cigarettes are purchased. Which is pretty shocking!

“In this study, we find that ENDS flavor policies reduce flavored ENDS sales as intended, but also increase cigarette sales across age groups. As cigarettes are much more lethal than ENDS, the high rate of substitution estimated here suggests that, on net, any population health benefits of ENDS flavor policies are likely small or even negative.”

As you can imagine this has really become of interest to vape advocates and I share some of their comments below.

Shell Ecigclick Photo
Michelle Jones

I am an engineer and Technical Author by trade. My journey in vaping began around 2016, in the days of Tornado tanks, Ego batteries and Variable Voltage. It took me a few years to fully quit smoking but I finally stopped in June 2019 and that is all thanks to vaping! 20mg Nicotine Salts are my hero! Oh and I am partial to a nice pod mod and Bubblegum e-liquid! I have reported on the latest news on Ecigclick since 2017 and love being part of this great team! My passion for Tobacco Harm Reduction has also led me to becoming a Trustee for the NNA (New Nicotine Alliance) aiding in Advocacy

Michelle Jones
https://nnalliance.org/nna-uk/board
I am an engineer and Technical Author by trade. My journey in vaping began around 2016, in the days of Tornado tanks, Ego batteries and Variable Voltage. It took me a few years to fully quit smoking but I finally stopped in June 2019 and that is all thanks to vaping! 20mg Nicotine Salts are my hero! Oh and I am partial to a nice pod mod and Bubblegum e-liquid! I have reported on the latest news on Ecigclick since 2017 and love being part of this great team! My passion for Tobacco Harm Reduction has also led me to becoming a Trustee for the NNA (New Nicotine Alliance) aiding in Advocacy
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1 COMMENT

  1. Now can we have a study that shows the amount of cigarette sales for those same periods and the ages of the people buying them had vapes not been available at all.

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