The UK government is considering harsher regulations on vaping, including significant taxes and bans on flavoured e-liquid.
But have policymakers truly considered the unintended consequences?
The rise of illicit tobacco sales in the UK serves as a stark warning—when legal products become unaffordable or unavailable, the black market thrives.
If the UK follows a similar path with vaping, we could see an unregulated underground trade that poses serious risks to public health and safety. I mean that’s what the government really care about right?
The Illicit Tobacco Trade in the UK: A Warning for Vaping
The UK has been battling illicit tobacco sales for decades, with smuggled and counterfeit cigarettes taking a significant share of the market.
In the early 2000s, illegal cigarettes accounted for over 20% of all tobacco consumed, costing the government billions in lost tax revenue. While efforts to curb the trade initially reduced its prevalence, recent data suggests a resurgence.
Despite previous successes, recent data indicates a resurgence in illicit tobacco trade:
Legal Sales Decline: Between 2021 and 2024, duty-paid cigarette sales plummeted from 23.6 billion to 13.2 billion, a 44.4% decrease. 
Hand-rolling tobacco saw a 47.6% decline in the same period.
Smoking Prevalence: The number of smokers decreased only modestly, from 8.31 million in 2021 to 8.27 million in 2024, suggesting that the sharp decline in legal sales is not solely due to reduced smoking rates (Full research by Christopher Snowden).
Australia’s Illicit Tobacco Trade: A Parallel to Vaping Risks
Australia has one of the world’s highest tobacco taxes, intended to reduce smoking rates. However, these heavy taxes have fuelled a thriving illicit tobacco market.
According to a KPMG study commissioned by British American Tobacco Australia, 16.9% of all tobacco consumed in Australia in 2020 was illegal, marking one of the highest recorded figures (source).
More recent estimates suggest illicit tobacco now makes up an even greater share, with figures ranging from 20% to over 28% in 2023 (source).
Despite the intention to curb smoking, these policies have inadvertently strengthened organised crime, leading to increased violence, tax losses, and the availability of unregulated products.
If the UK applies similarly restrictive measures to vaping, a parallel illicit trade is likely to emerge, putting consumers at risk.
The Dangers of a Black-Market Vaping Industry
If legal vaping products become inaccessible, the consequences could be severe:
1. Unregulated and Unsafe Products
Illicit tobacco products often contain higher levels of toxins and contaminants, and the same could happen with black-market vapes. 
Without regulation:
- E-liquids would not be tested and could contain harmful additives such as heavy metals, solvents, and even synthetic cannabinoids.
- Nicotine concentrations could be dangerously inconsistent, making it harder for users to control their intake and causing further possible harm.
- Banned ingredients, such as Diacetyl and even Vitamin E acetate, which caused severe lung injuries in the US, could make their way into illegal vapes.
2. Increased Youth Access
Government officials argue that restricting vapes will reduce youth access, but illicit tobacco sales have shown the opposite effect.
A regulated market ensures strict ID checks, while a black market operates with no age verification at all.
Criminal networks do not care about underage sales, meaning more young people could access dangerous, unregulated products.
3. Growth of Organised Crime
Tobacco smuggling is already linked to criminal enterprises and funding of other illicit activities.
The rise in illegal vapes could further fuel organised crime, diverting law enforcement resources away from more pressing public safety concerns.
Reports indicate that illegal disposable vapes are already widespread in the UK, with millions seized in recent months. These are just to get around the 2ml e-liquid max capacity and 20mg max nicotine strength. Image what will happen should increased pricing and lack of flavour option come into play? (source).
4. Former Smokers Returning to Cigarettes
One of the greatest successes of vaping is its role in helping smokers quit.
However, if legal alternatives become inaccessible, many former smokers may return to traditional cigarettes—undoing years of harm reduction progress.
A Smarter Approach: Regulation Over Prohibition
Rather than repeating the same mistakes seen in the tobacco industry, the UK government should focus on smarter solutions, such as:
- Enforcing existing regulations to crack down on illegal imports rather than banning safer legal products.
- Ensuring adult vapers have access to flavoured options within a regulated framework.
- Gradual, fair taxation that does not push vapers toward illicit sources.
- Public awareness campaigns to educate users about the dangers of unregulated vaping.
Final Thoughts
The resurgence of illicit tobacco in the UK and Australia proves that excessive taxation and bans do not eliminate demand—they simply push consumers into dangerous, unregulated markets.
If vaping faces the same heavy-handed approach, we will see a booming illicit trade with all the associated risks: unsafe products, increased youth access, and strengthened organised crime.
Instead of forcing vapers into the shadows, policymakers must prioritise harm reduction and responsible regulation. The lesson from the illicit tobacco trade is clear—prohibition fails, but smart policies can protect both public health and consumer choice.
What’s Next?
If you are concerned about the future of vaping regulations in the UK, now is the time to act. Contact your MP, support harm reduction organisations, and spread awareness.
A safe, regulated vaping industry is still possible—but only if we fight for it.
